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PEOPLE-BASED COMMUNITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Vermont needs more people. More people need Vermont.

There are nearly 100,000 Vermonters between ages 55-65. About 14,800 workers are projected to retire annually through the end of this decade. This is only partially offset by 2,100 high school graduates and 4,500 college graduates staying in Vermont and joining the labor force each year. Vermont needs to add 13,500 new people into the workforce each year. Removing barriers to work and upskilling of current Vermonters will be helpful but not enough on its own. Recruitment and retention of new working-age Vermonters is critical for our future.  

GOAL

Grow Vermont's population by 1.8% per year to reach 802,000 people by 2035.

CURRENT STATUS

Population estimated at 647,064 people in 2022. Gap of 154,936 to reach 2035 goal.

TREND

Population only grew by an estimated 92 people between 2021-2022.

Key Performance Indicators

Select indicators below for data.

  • Target = Lower Median Age to 40 by 2035
    Status = 42.7 (2021)

    Old-age dependency ratio is rapidly increasing. There are major workforce and social challenges ahead if Vermont does not grow its working age population. Vermont will need to develop solutions to attract and retain young talent to sustain vibrant and equitable communities.

JFO Issue Brief: Population

  • TARGET = 15,000 Net Migration Per Year Through 2035
    Status = 2,153 (2021-2022)

    Deaths have outpaced births every year since 2017. This trend is likely to continue and accelerate as Vermont's population ages. In-migration will need to increase dramatically just to take care of the people who are already here.

IMF: Aging is the Real Population Bomb

  • TARGET = Equalize Workforce Supply & Demand
    Status = 13,500 Additional Workers Needed Per Year

    About 14,800 workers are projected to retire annually through the end of this decade. This is only partially offset by 2,100 high school graduates and 4,500 college graduates staying in Vermont and joining the labor force each year. Removing barriers to work and upskilling of current Vermonters will be helpful but not enough on its own. Recruitment and retention of new working-age Vermonters is critical for our future.

VT Department of Labor Occupational Projections

  • TARGET = 150,000 BIPoC Vermonters by 2035
    STATUS = 52,413 (2022)

    If the BIPoC population in Vermont were doubled today, the overall population of the state would be about 700,000 people and Vermont would still be 85% White. We cannot become more diverse, equitable, and inclusive as a state without embracing some level of population growth.

Youthful minorities are the engine of future growth