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Economic Base

Source: Census (Origin of Movement Series) VT Exports, Vermont GDP, US export data, US GDP data

Vermont exports as share of GDP saw a dramatic decline in 2016 (2015 = 11%; 2016 = 6%) as compared to the national share which decreased by a 1% (2015 = 13%, 2016 = 12%). The value of the state’s foreign exports in 2016 was $2.99 billion as compared to $3.182 billion in 2015. VT’s largest trading partner continues to be Canada, however, the percentage of trade continues to shrink; from 46.4% in 2013, to 39.7% in 2016. The share of VT’s trade going to our second largest trading parter, Hong Kong, has steadily increased from 8.3% in 2013 to 11.8% in 2016. A growing share of export trade comes from over 1000 small and medium sized firms.

Source: BEA.

Economic activity from outside the state is directly responsible for over 1/3 of the private sector jobs in Vermont. This “minimum requirements” analysis benchmarks Vermont employment to comparison states, to highlight “basic” economic activity that imports dollars through sales of goods or services. This chart shows the top industries that produce the jobs beyond what we would expect based on other benchmark state economies. The light green bar is total Vermont employment in that category, and the dark green bar is employment above and beyond what we would expect in Vermont.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Survey of Manufacturing (2004-2011, 2013), *Note: There was no data on capital expenditures for 2012, the chart reports the average of 2011 and 2013

Some recovery occurred post-recession in the value of shipments from the Vermont Manufacturing sector. Over $9 billion in shipments were reported in 2014, but the trend has been downward since 2011 when shipments topped $11 billion. Vermont is 25% below 2004-2007 levels. (All data is in real 2015 dollars)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Survey of Manufacturing (2004-2011, 2013), Economic Census (2012)

Capital Expenditures by Vermont manufacturers decreased slightly from 2013 to 2014. Investments had dropped during the recession but picked up in 2011, generally trending with shipment value (see previous data tab). All data is in real 2015 dollars.

*Note: There was no data on capital expenditures for 2012, the chart reports the average of 2011 and 2013.